Weekly RiskForesights Radar

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An Eminent Debt Crisis in the Next 18 months

According to the World Bank, following up on a decade of rising debt, and the COVID – 19 crisis has expanded total indebtedness by countries to a 50 Year High. The High debt of emerging markets and developing economies has seen Sri Lanka falling and more Countries are expected to fall and 69 countries are expected to fallow the Sri Lanka way. The Ukraine – Russia war is acting as a Catalyst and darkened the outlook for many developing countries that are major commodity importers, highly dependend on Tourism and volatile FDIs.

Opportunity or Threat Aspect of The Risk

Emerging Markets and Developing Economies should brace for instability of financial systems, low or no economic growth, poor service delivery, social welfare programs, increased protests and social instability.

13. May 2022

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A World That has Evolved Into Seperate Ecosystems, Economic Clusters, Political and Military Clusters by 2030

The Reality of the World evolving into seperate Ecosystems, Economic Clusters, Political and Military Clusters has become more certain that ever before, the catalysts being the NATO’s Military Expansion Ambitions and the Russia – Ukraine War.

Opportunity or Threat Aspect of The Risk

According to World Economic Forum

  • The Russian invasion into Ukraine will have far reaching consequences in a variety of areas: the situation has evolved into a humanitarian crisis, has turned food and energy security volatile and raises questions about the architecture of global security.
  • These challenges will not be limited to Ukraine, but due to the globalised world we live in, will pose challenges across the globe.
  • Both short- and long-term solutions must be found to ensure these consequences won’t result into castastrophes upon catastrophes.

13. May 2022

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The EU’s energy bill could cost a lot more by 2030

It is Anticipated The EU’s energy bill will cost a lot more by 2030. A new report by the sustainability group Global Witness and think-tank Ember forecasts a costly outlook for the bloc if it cuts its longstanding reliance on Russian gas.  According to the report, the EU could face $200 billion more in costs by 2030 if the ban goes through and Europe doesn’t switch to cleaner fuels. 

Opportunity or Threat Aspect of The Risk

Economic Blocs such as Asia – China in Particular, India and Africa should be asking what Threats and Opportunitues will this Risk Scenario Presents?”

“The European Union should be asking what does it mean to the Cost of Production, the Cost to the Citizens and the Cost of it Exports and the Broader Impact to the EU Economy?”

13. May 2022

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Eminent Significant Inflation Risks in 2022

The International Monetary Fund is anticipating inflation pressures to be significant around the world in 2022. Inflation is anticipated to be worse in developing markets, where price increases are projected to reach 8.7 percent on average over the course of 2022. In developed nations, this number is projected to be at at 5.7 percent.

Opportunity or Threat Aspect of The Risk

It is generally acknowledged that High inflation can lead to lower purchasing power, as prices tend to grow before wages, and those with savings or living on a fixed income see their buying power erode. Hyperinflation, the extreme example of this phenomenon, can lead to total economic collapse as the currency loses value so quickly that it essentially becomes worthless.

19. May 2022